Airef warns: The dependency rate will shoot up to almost 70% in 2050
The president of the Independent Fiscal Responsibility Authority (Airef), Cristina Herrero, This Thursday has advanced that the agency will review “quite” upwards its estimates for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Spanish this year, which are currently located in the 23%.
This has been advanced by the president during her speech at the conference for the 40th anniversary of the Foundation of Applied Economics Studies (Fedea).
Perspective improvement responds, according to Cristina Herrero, to the review of national accounting figures Between 2022 and 2024, published last week by the National Statistics Institute (INE).
In addition, the president of the Airef has explained that the Dissipation of uncertainty and the Immigration impulse TThey would also be behind that upward review of GDP forecasts, which will approach those published by other national and international organizations recently.
In fact, the Bank of Spain and the OECD, as well as the government itself, have improved their growth projections to fees itself between 2.6% and 2.7%.
Decentralization problem for sustainability analysis
During her speech at the conference, the president of Airef has recognized the difficulties of the Administrative decentralization for the analyzes that are carried out on sustainability.
“Administrative decentralization, both at the territorial level and within each of the levels, has undeniable advantages in terms of specialization or proximity, but It fails if there is no adequate coordination. And right now there is no“He warned.
According to Herrero, decentralization cannot suppose lose information and that an accurate diagnosis of the problems of Spain cannot be made. “If we cannot make a precise diagnosis, we will surely be in the solution proposals,” he lamented.
In this sense, Herrero has pointed out, as examples, the deployment of Minimum vital income, The analysis of poverty or waiting lists in health.
Pensions will increasingly consume more public spending
Likewise, the president of Airef has referred to Demographic challenge and the incidence in the pension system. He recalled that the trend is that the dependency rate From here to 2050 at least 70%will be placed, although there is a favorable evolution of migratory flows.
“The trend is that The growth of pension spending will be far superior to the growth of contributions And that this will assume that In 2050 the State will have to make transfers to Social Security for an amount of 2.4 additional GDP points to which it has already been doing, “he said
With these perspectives, the independent authority provides that if nothing is done, The public deficit of Spain will rise to 7% of GDP And the debt almost 130% by 2050. “The message is that the sooner it acts, the easier it is to reverse the trend,” Herrero stressed.
