We live more and more time and, in addition, with better health. This is very good news, but also raises an important challenge, because The growing longevity is combined with very low birth rateswhich is transforming the way in which our society is organized. This demographic change forces to rethink the economic and social model, Beyond taking partial measures such as encouraging birth or facilitating immigration.
The last special dossier of CaixaBank Research Analyze this transition and its implications on three key fronts: macroeconomy, public accounts and the way we save and invest our money.
The figures show the magnitude of the challenge. In most European countries, as well as in the United States and China, birth is below the population replacement level, set in 2.1 children per woman. Spain has been in this situation for more than four decades, since in the next 25 years, a barely 1.3 Children per woman. At the same time, life expectancy does not stop growing, because in our country it is already in 84 years and will continue to increase until 2050, with most of those additional years in good health.
The result of this is a increasingly aging population. In 2020, the generation that entered the retirement stage was already more numerous than the one that was incorporated into the work world. This phenomenon, known as “demographic trap”, will continue to intensify more and more. Currently in Spain there are 2.6 people of working for every 65 years, and, in 2050, the proportion will be only 1.6.
Neither an increase in birth nor immigration may, by themselves, reverse this situation. Although the migratory flows Recent can provide a certain respite, sustained figures would be necessary One million new immigrants a year for three decades To maintain the current balance. In addition, this would require adapting public services (pensions, health, infrastructure) so that they do not collapse.
In this context, the challenge is very clear. The way to guarantee the sustainability of well -being in a scenario of less births and greater longevity should be sought. In order to achieve it, it will be necessary to rethink the role of the economy, the efficiency of public policies and the Importance of private savings as a complement that provides stability and security to the families of the future.
