Pensions could rise around 2.5-2.6% in 2026, according to the CPI until September
The September CPI climbs to 3%, its highest level since February
a new pension increase is just around the corner, since from the January 1, 2026 All Spanish pensioners will see their payrolls increased, at least, according to what the average annual inflation until November. And, although still two pieces of information are missing To know the exact percentage, it is now possible predict with enough certainty what the increase will be.
The key is provided by Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, which has shot up to 3%as just published by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). This is the largest price increase since February, due to fuel and electricity, meaning the cost of living becomes more expensive again, after the CPI remained at 2.7% in August and July.
In addition to the strong impact on the consumer’s pocket, the September CPI is of great importance, since the evolution of the inflation in the last 10 months allows us to predict that the next revaluation of Social Security pensions and the officials of the Passive Classes will be around 2.6% in general, unless in October or November (the two remaining months to count) there are major surprises (that the prices of the shopping basket and energy bills skyrocket or collapse).
It must be remembered that the annual increase of the contributory pensions is done based on the average annual CPI resulting between the month of December of the previous year and November of the current year, as established by the Law 21/2021, of December 28. For this reason, and taking into account the 10 known CPI data To date, the update of pensions next year would be around 2.6%, somewhat lower than that experienced in 2025 (the increase has been 2.8% overall).
What could change with inflation in October and November, the two months of CPI that remain to be known to find the exact percentage of pension increases? Although the forecast must necessarily be approximate, these are some possible scenarios:
– A CPI that in October and November remains in the current trend, about 3%, would make pensions increase at least 2.6%-2.65%. It must be remembered that annual inflation has been around 2.7%-3% in the last three months (July to September), a figure higher than what they had been recording in the previous four months.
– A CPI that in October and November is around 2.5%, would cause pensions to increase he 2.6%.
– An annual CPI in October and November lower than the current one, in the order of 2%-2.3% (this is what happened between last May and June), it would leave the rise in the 2.5%.
Speaking of forecasts, the Ministry of Economy, who directs Carlos Body, trust that the CPI is approaching the 2% target, despite the rise in September, and this was detailed in a recent interview on RNE.
Everything indicates, therefore, that the 2026 pension increase will be around (tenth up or down), 2.6%.
What is certain is that the increase in the amount of contributory benefits in 2026 will benefit 10.4 million pensions, who charge close to 9.4 million people, As shown by the data Ministry of Inclusion and Social Security, who directs Elma Saiz.
CONTRIBUTIVE PENSIONS (NUMBER, AMOUNT AND EXPENSE) SEPT. 2025
Examples of rise in 2026 in hard and cold euros
If confirmed a revaluation of pensions 2.6% since January 1 next, the amount of the average pay of the Social Security system, located in 1,314 euros in September, would rise around 34 euros per month (up to 1,348 on average).
Always assuming that 2.6% predictable increase, the average retirement pension (currently 1,508.7 euros) would increase about 40 euros monthly (and could reach 1,548 euros on average).
The pension of average widowhood (936.3 euros in September 2025) would experience a increase of 24.3 euros per month, which would raise this benefit to 960.6 euros.
For its part, counting on a foreseeable increase of 2.6% in 2026, the pension average of self-employed (the current amount is 1,010.9 euros) would register a increase of 26.3 euros (up to 1,037 euros).
The exact increase in pay will be known on November 28
January 1, 2026 Minimum pensions and pensions will also increase. non-contributory, But these increase percentages are decided by the Government based on its own parameters, the rise is usually higher to the general, and there is no date established by Law.
On the other hand, for the Social Security pensions and those of civil servants, The key date to know exactly the increase is Friday, November 28, day on which the National Institute of Statistics plans to announce the advance data on year-on-year inflation corresponding to the eleventh month of 2025.
Know this figure will provide the almost exact percentage how much payments will increase in 2026, although the data definitive will be confirmed on December 11, date assigned for the statistical office corroborate the CPI for November, which will allow us to calculate with absolute precision the annual average inflation of the last 12 months (those used for pension revaluation).
